The coldest days fall during the third and fourth nine-day periods of winter.
Folk wisdom says, "First and second nines, hands stay tucked; third and fourth nines, ice walks begin." This describes how temperatures remain relatively mild earlier on, but by the third and fourth nines, the cold intensifies, rivers freeze over, and walking on ice becomes possible—illustrating the biting severity of the weather.
Moreover, from the Winter Solstice to the "third nine-day period," daylight increases by only about one minute per day on average. Simultaneously, the angle between the sun's rays and the ground rises very slowly.The ground's daily heat balance remains in deficit, causing continued heat loss and a steady drop in ground temperature. By the fourth nine-day period, the total ground heat deficit reaches its peak. Since air temperature is primarily influenced by ground temperature, this results in the lowest temperatures during the third and fourth nine-day periods.Additionally, around the "Three Nines" period, cold air masses from Siberia intensify to their peak strength. Frequent incursions of powerful cold air are another factor contributing to the low temperatures.
Generally influenced by regional differences and geography, the coldest period in northern regions occurs during the "Three Nines," while southern regions experience their coldest days during the "Four Nines."
2020-2021 Three-Nine Period Schedule
Third Nine Period: January 8, 2021 - January 16, 2021.
Appendix: 2020-2021 Nine-Nine Period Schedule
First Nine Days: December 21, 2020 - December 29, 2020.
Second Nine Days: December 30, 2020 - January 7, 2021.
Third Nine Days: January 8, 2021 – January 16, 2021.
Fourth Nine Days: January 17, 2021 – January 25, 2021.
Fifth Nine Days: January 26, 2021 – February 3, 2021.
Sixth Nine Period: February 4, 2021 – February 12, 2021.
Seventh Nine Period: February 13, 2021 – February 21, 2021.
Eighth Nine Period: February 22, 2021 – March 2, 2021.
Ninety-Nine Days Period: March 3, 2021 – March 11, 2021.
Counting ninety-nine days from the winter solstice falling on a Ren day, spring warmth and blossoms arrive after this period. The folk rhyme goes: "First and second nines, hands stay tucked in; third and fourth nines, ice paths to tread; fifth and sixth nines, riverside willows to see; seventh nines, ice melts, rivers flow."Eighth and ninth, swallows arrive; Add one more nine, and oxen plow the fields. This folk wisdom, distilled from generations of agricultural and daily life experience, observes natural ecological patterns and weather signs. It remains widely recited today to help people navigate winter's cold shifts and guide seasonal activities.
How cold will the 2021 Lunar New Year be?
The 2021 Lunar New Year falls on the final day of the "Sixth Nine."
During the 2021 Lunar New Year period, New Year's Eve and the first day of the Lunar New Year mark the last two days of the "Sixth Nine"; the second to the tenth day of the first lunar month constitute the "Seventh Nine"; and the days following the tenth day belong to the "Eighth Nine."According to the Nine-Nine Counting Song, "During the Fifth and Sixth Nines, go riverside to see the willows," and "The Seventh Nine thaws the rivers, the Eighth Nine brings the swallows." This indicates that the weather during these periods is significantly milder than the "Third Nine" and "Fourth Nine," with less severe cold.The weather gradually warms, and glimpses of spring begin to appear. However, though not as frigid as the Three Nines, caution is still needed: dress warmly in cotton garments, heed the adage "bundle up in spring, bundle up in autumn," and guard against late spring chills.
When does the counting of the Nine Nines begin to warm?
The counting of the Nine Nines to dispel the cold marks the start of warming weather, which began on March 11, 2021.
As recorded in Liang Dynasty scholar Liang Daizonglin's Jingchu Suishi Ji: "Custom dictates counting ninety-nine days from the Winter Solstice, marking the end of cold." The "Counting Nines" period starts from the Winter Solstice, counting nine days as one "nine" until the eighty-first day ("nine nines"). When "the nines are done, peach blossoms bloom," warmth arrives.
However, China's vast territory spans vastly different climates. The phenomenon of the winter solstice coinciding with the day of Ren, where "after ninety-nine days, the peach blossoms bloom and spring deepens with warm days," applies only to certain regions of China. It is not universal nationwide. Some colder areas show no signs of spring even as spring arrives elsewhere.